Countdown to the Oscars: First Predictions

The Academy Awards show will be occurring at the end of February and we most assuredly have a tight, wild race this year. The Best Picture field is all over the place with both Spotlight and The Big Short in a dead heat for the victory. Then you have The Revenant not too far behind, and if Alejandro G. Iñárritu happens to win the DGA this weekend, it is definitely a three-way race for Best Picture. Mad Max: Fury Road is also lurking around the corner, but I do not think that is happening. Below I have listed all the nominees in ever category. I have given my prediction and a backup in case my pick is incorrect. It is basically who I believe is in second place. I also wanted to have a little fun, so I put a “who should have been nominated” for some of the categories as well. I did not predict in the shorts categories as I have not seen them yet, but hope to before show. A few comments after each major category, but we still have a long ways to go before I have my final predictions during the week of the Oscars. Enjoy!!!

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Prediction:  SPOTLIGHT

If Not:  THE BIG SHORT

Should Have Been Nominated:  CAROL

*** As of today, it is a tight race between PGA and ACE winner The Big Short, and SAG and Critics Choice winner Spotlight. The only other film that is in contention is Golden Globe Drama winner The Revenant, which also received the most nominations with 12. Can Iñárritu pull off Best Picture two years in a row? I do not think so, but these are the only three films that can win Best Picture. Anything else, including the beloved Mad Max: Fury Road, would be a huge, insane upset.

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Prediction:  GEORGE MILLER (MAD MAX: FURY ROAD)

If Not:  ALEJANDRO G. IÑÁRRITU (THE REVENANT)

Should Have Been Nominated:  TODD HAYNES (CAROL)

*** This category will really fall into place after this weekend’s DGA Award is announced. Right now, I am going with Miller and he deserves it, but watch out for Iñárritu, who won the DGA last year and could easily pull it off again. Miller is due and delivered one hell of a spectacle with Mad Max: Fury Road. 

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Prediction:  LEONARDO DICAPRIO (THE REVENANT)

If Not:  MICHAEL FASSBENDER (STEVE JOBS)

Should Have Been Nominated:  MICHAEL KEATON (SPOTLIGHT) ran supporting

*** Leonardo DiCaprio will finely win his first Oscar come February 28th. He won the Golden Globe Drama, Critics Choice, and SAG award. Done deal. No surprises here.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Prediction:  BRIE LARSON (ROOM)

If Not:  SAOIRSE RONAN (BROOKLYN)

Should Have Been Nominated:  CATE BLANCHETT (TRUTH)

*** Much like with the easy pick of DiCaprio, the same goes for Brie Larson. Amazing performance and she has won the Golden Globe Drama, Critics Choice, SAG. Done deal here as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Prediction:  SYLVESTER STALLONE (CREED)

If Not:  CHRISTIAN BALE (THE BIG SHORT)

Should Have Been Nominated: IDRIS ELBA (BEASTS OF NO NATION ) & PAUL DANO (LOVE & MERCY)

*** The toughest category to pick by far. Stallone has got the veteran/overdue thing going for him, but he was not nominated by SAG. He did win the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and has done really well with regional and local critics. My bet is on him, but it could honestly go with any of these actors. It is coin flip between Bale and Ruffalo, as they are both in films that the Academy really love. If one of them win, it could be an early sign of where Best Picture might be going. It would also not shock me if Rylance or Hardy win. Wide open field and too many great actors left off, especially Elba and Dano.

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Prediction:  ALICIA VIKANDER (THE DANISH GIRL)

If Not:  ROONEY MARA (CAROL)

Should Have Been Nominated:  ALICIA VIKANDER (EX MACHINA)

*** This has to be the category with largest amount of category fraud. Mara and Vikander could have easily (should have been) nominated in the Best Actress, as they were leads in those films. Nonetheless, Vikander won the SAG and Critics Choice, and is going to win here. She is the frontrunner, but if not, it will either be Mara, who is so goddamn brilliant in Carol, or Winslet, who is really great in Steve Jobs. I think Vikander has got wrapped up though.

Best Original Screenplay
Matt Charman, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley & Ronnie del Carmen, Inside Out
Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge & Alan Wenkus, Straight Outta Compton

Prediction:  SPOTLIGHT

If Not:  STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON

Should Have Been Nominated:  THE HATEFUL EIGHT

***Spotlight all the way. The only surprise could be with Straight Outta Compton or Inside Out, but since Spotlight is the clear Best Picture frontrunner in this category, it is going to win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Charles Randolph & Adam McKay, The Big Short
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Phyllis Nagy, Carol
Drew Goddard, The Martian
Emma Donoghue, Room

Prediction:  THE BIG SHORT 

If Not:  CAROL

Should Have Been Nominated:  STEVE JOBS

*** The Big Short, all the way, for the same reasons that Spotlight will the original category. I would love to see Carol win, but not going to happen.

Best Foreign Film
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War

Prediction:  SON OF SAUL

If Not:  MUSTANG

Should Have Been Nominated:  LABYRINTH OF LIES

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Prediction:  AMY

If Not:  THE LOOK OF SILENCE

Should Have Been Nominated:  GOING CLEAR: SCIENTOLOGY AND THE PRISON OF BELIEF

*** Should be The Look of Silence, but Amy has this one wrapped up.

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Prediction:  INSIDE OUT

If Not:  ANOMALISA

Should Have Been Nominated:  This is accurate; no complaints.

*** Inside Out will easily win this one, but I do wish Anomalisa had a real shot. It does not though.

Best Film Editing
Hank Corwin, The Big Short
Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road
Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
Tom McArdle, Spotlight
Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  THE BIG SHORT

If Not:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Should Have Been Nominated:  CAROL

*** The Big Short and Mad Max: Fury Road won the ACE Eddie’s. It is going to be between these two films and my bet is on The Big Short since it has a better chance of winning Best Picture. However, Mad Max: Fury Road is the best edited film of the year and I would not be surprised if it won. Remember that last year Birdman was not even nominated for  Best Film Editing, but still won Best Picture. And the year before that, Gravity won the Oscar, but 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. It does not always have to match up…

Best Song
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Writings on the Wall,” Spectre
“Till It Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
“Simple Song #3,” Youth

Prediction:  SPECTRE

If Not:  THE HUNTING GROUND

*** It could go to any of these songs. My bet is on the popular consensus, but I would like to see Youth take this one.

Best Original Score
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Carter Burwell, Carol
Ennis Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Jóhann Jóhannsson, Sicario
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  THE HATEFUL EIGHT

If Not:  CAROL

Should Have Been Nominated:  THE REVENANT

*** It is all about honoring the great, magnificent Ennio Morricone, and he actually deserves it as well. That score is haunting and amazing! It also really admired what Carter Burwell did as well and would love it if won. His score for Carol was a perfect compliment to a perfect piece of cinema. 

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

If Not:  STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS

Should Have Been Nominated:  They got it right!

*** I am probably going to regret going with Mad Max: Fury Road as this is the category where Star Wars: The Force Awakens will get at least one victory. I will probably change my pick before the show, and it winning four VES awards does not hurt and shows where the industry is leaning.

Best Cinematography
Edward Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

Prediction:  THE REVENANT

If Not:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Should Have Been Nominated:  They got it right!

*** I am sorry Mr. Deakins, but not this time. That is unfortunate, but how can it not be Chivo. This will be his third Oscar in a row and completely deserves it. The ASC award should clear things up a bit, but I am sure Chivo is taking home another statue. All the nominees are very deserving.

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Prediction:  CAROL

If Not:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Prediction:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

If Not:  THE REVENANT 

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Prediction:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

If Not:  THE REVENANT

Should Have Been Nominated:  CAROL

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

If Not:  THE REVENANT

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Prediction:  MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

If Not:  THE REVENANT 

Best Short Film, Live Action
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer

Best Short Film, Animated
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Documentary Short Subject
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann
A Girl in the River
Last Day of Freedom

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s