2017 First Oscar Predictions

Although it is just early October, we only have three months left in 2016 and five months until Oscar Sunday. So, yes, Oscar prediction time is here, and everything is in full swing. Venice, Telluride and Toronto have all unveiled many films, with the New York Film Festival going on right now. The biggest thing out of Venice and Telluride is the emergence of Damien Chazelle’s Demy-like musical La La Land wowing all who have seen it. Everything I have read so far expresses that it is not a full on knockout, but pretty damn close, and might be a beautiful escape for movie culture  during this year of insane political tediousness and the heaviness of the usual Hollywood drama and meaning pictures.

Then there is the other big picture that premiered, in what I believe, along with Chazelle’s films, are the likely frontrunners for Best Picture, Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea, which supposedly stars a career-defining performance from the wonderfully gifted Casey Affleck. A drama, of course, but one that canvasses a wide range of emotions and personal struggles. As of right now, these two films, if we go on what has been seen and discussed, are the two big frontrunners this early.

That is not all. We all know how heated and uncomfortable last year’s Oscar race was, especially with the #Oscarssowhite headlines and all. I really thought the one film that slammed on to the scene, right when this conversation, or lack there of, was occurring during Oscar season was Nate Parker’s The Birth of Nation. The film was glowed upon immensely in Sundance, timing assisted it a bit, and although a lot of critics thought it was a good, not great film, it was this timing that skyrocketed is chances for 2017. Then the despicable rape accusations of director-star Parker and co-writer Jean Celestin, have all but killed its chances, as well as Parker’s ignorance and lack of empathy of late have not helped. His most recent interview with “60 Minutes” did little to help his or the films chances.

There are also films, such as Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight, which is received raves out of Telluride and Toronto, Jeff Nichols’ Loving, which garnered great reviews from Cannes, but not the raves Moonlight, has received and Denzel Washington’s Fences, premiering later this year, that all focus on African American lives, history and culture within the context of America and our multicultural society. These films I hope to see shine at Oscar time, and not just because they are about African American culture in America, but because of the power of their storytelling and their overall importance to all of us. I hope we do not go down another road like last year where the two best films of the year, Carol, about a love affair between two women, and Beasts of No Nation, about child soldiers in war torn Africa, do not receive enough votes or are not seen by the Academy. Again, get it together Academy!

Okay, enough riffs for now. We still have films from Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Ben Affleck’s Live By Night, Allied, from Robert Zemeckis, the aforementioned Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Martin Scorsese’s Silence, to premiere this year. It does not look like as strong a year as last year, but that could only lead to some pleasant surprises.

I have listed my current top ten for best picture, and top five’s for the other main categories. Then I have my next in line below that. Enjoy!!!

BEST PICTURE

  1. LA LA LAND
  2. FENCES
  3. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
  4. BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK
  5. SILENCE
  6. MOONLIGHT
  7. LOVING
  8. LION
  9. SULLY
  10. JACKIE

–NEXT TIER:

  • HELL OR HIGH WATER
  • ARRIVAL
  • LIVE BY NIGHT
  • FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
  • ALLIED
  • THE BIRTH OF A NATION
  • 20TH CENTURY WOMEN
  • HIDDEN FIGURES

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)
  2. ANG LEE (BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK)
  3. KENNETH LONERGAN (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  4. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)
  5. MARTIN SCORSESE (SILENCE)

–NEXT TIER:

  • BARRY JENKINS (MOONLIGHT)
  • PABLO LARRAÍN (JACKIE)
  • JEFF NICHOLS (LOVING)
  • CLINT EASTWOOD (SULLY)
  • GARTH DAVIS (LION)
  • BEN AFFLECK (LIVE BY NIGHT)
  • DENIS VILLENEUVE (ARRIVAL)
  • DAVID MACKENZIE (HELL OR HIGH WATER)

BEST ACTOR

  1. CASEY AFFLECK (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  2. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)
  3. RYAN GOSLING (LA LA LAND)
  4. DEV PATEL (LION)
  5. TOM HANKS (SULLY)

–NEXT TIER:

  • JOEL EDGERTON (LOVING)
  • ANDREW GARFIELD (SILENCE)
  • MICHAEL KEATON (THE FOUNDER)
  • MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY (GOLD)
  • BEN AFFLECK (LIVE BY NIGHT)
  • CHRIS PINE (HELL OR HIGH WATER)
  • MILES TELLER (BLEED FOR THIS)
  • JAKE GYLLENHAAL (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)

BEST ACTRESS

  1. EMMA STONE (LA LA LAND)
  2. VIOLA DAVIS (FENCES)
  3. NATALIE PORTMAN (JACKIE)
  4. ANNETTE BENING (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)
  5. AMY ADAMS (ARRIVAL)

–NEXT TIER:

  • RUTH NEGGA (LOVING)
  • MERYL STREEP (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)
  • ISABELLE HUPPERT (ELLE)
  • JESSICA CHASTAIN (MISS SLOANE)
  • AMY ADAMS (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)
  • MARION COTILLARD (ALLIED)
  • TARAJI P. HENSON (HIDDEN FIGURES)
  • JENNIFER LAWRENCE (PASSENGERS)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. MAHERSHALA ALI (MOONLIGHT)
  2. JEFF BRIDGES (HELL OR HIGH WATER)
  3. LUCAS HEDGES (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  4. LIAM NEESON (SILENCE)
  5. MICHAEL SHANNON (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)

–NEXT TIER:

  • PETER SARSGAARD (JACKIE)
  • HUGH GRANT (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)
  • STEPHEN HENDERSON (FENCES)
  • AARON ECKHART (SULLY)
  • STEVE MARTIN (BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK)
  • AARON ECKHART (BLEED FOR THIS)
  • WARREN BEATTY (RULES DON’T APPLY)
  • ANDRE HOLLAND (MOONLIGHT)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. NAOMIE HARRIS (MOONLIGHT)
  2. MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  3. NICOLE KIDMAN (LION)
  4. KRISTEN STEWART (BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK)
  5. OCTAVIA SPENCER (HIDDEN FIGURES)

–NEXT TIER:

  • MOLLY SHANNON (OTHER PEOPLE)
  • LUPITA NYONG’O (QUEEN OF KATWE)
  • GRETA GERWIG (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)
  • AJA NAOMI KING (THE BIRTH OF A NATION)
  • RACHEL WEISZ (THE LOBSTER)
  • FELICITY JONES (A MONSTER CALLS)
  • JANELLE MONAE (HIDDEN FIGURES)
  • LAURA DERN (THE FOUNDER)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. AUGUST WILSON (FENCES)
  2. JAY COCKS (SILENCE)
  3. LUKE DAVIES (LION)
  4. JEAN-CHRISTOPHE CASTELLI (BILLY LYNN’S LONG HALFTIME WALK)
  5. ERIC HEISSERER (ARRIVAL)

–NEXT TIER:

  • JAMES SCHAMUS (INDIGNATION)
  • TODD KOMARNICKI (SULLY)
  • BEN AFFLECK (LIVE BY NIGHT)
  • TOM FORD (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)
  • ALLISON SCHROEDER, THEODORE MELFI (HIDDEN FIGURES)
  • WHIT STILLMAN (LOVE & FRIENDSHIP)
  • DAVID BIRKE (ELLE)
  • KELLY REICHARDT (CERTAIN WOMEN)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. KENNETH LONERGAN (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  2. BARRY JENKINS, TARELL MCRANEY (MOONLIGHT)
  3. DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)
  4. NOAH OPPENHEIM (JACKIE)
  5. TAYLOR SHERIDAN (HELL OR HIGH WATER)

–NEXT TIER:

  • JEFF NICHOLS (LOVING)
  • YORGOS LANTHIMOS, EFTHYMIS FILIPPOU (THE LOBSTER)
  • JIM JARMUSCH (PATERSON)
  • MIKE MILLS (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)
  • NICHOLAS MARTIN (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)
  • WARREN BEATTY (RULES DON’T APPLY)
  • JONATHAN PERERA (MISS SLOANE)
  • STEVEN KNIGHT (ALLIED)

Photo credit by the playlist.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s