January Oscar Predictions Update

We are getting closer, and closer to the Oscar nominations. The race for nominations is slowly settling into place, with a few surprises in store. The Best Picture race is down to there films —  La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. Any other film that would win at the Oscars would be a huge shock, and if one of these three films were not to be nominated, it would be even more shocking. The DGA and PGA nominations will really settle the Best Picture and Director fields. Which films do the guilds love the most? I know La La Land did not receive a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble, but it is a two lead film, will small supporting roles around. After those main three, the field is up in the air. I believe the only solid nomination is Fences, and the rest of the field could easily surprise.

Director is a three way race between Chazelle, Lonergan, and Jenkins. The DGA might decide who actually wins. It could be any of the three. The other two spots are really up for debate and could be filled by Scorsese, Washington, Villeneuve, Gibson or Mackenzie. Who knows where it goes after the big three.

Best Actor is a two-way race between Affleck and Washington. Does Mortensen get a nomination? He did receive a Globe and SAG nomination, and the film received a Best Ensemble nomination with SAG as well. I think he is in, but what about the next two slots. Hanks, Garfield, Gosling, or Egerton…

Best Actress is the most exciting and one where anything could happen. Stone and Portman are at the front of the pack, but watch out for Bening (she still has not won and it is a shame), Streep, Adams, Negga, Huppert, and Chastain. It will interesting who gets nominated and who actually wins.

All of my predictions are below and I will have one more set predictions before the Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday, January 24th. Enjoy!!!

BEST PICTURE

  1. LA LA LAND
  2. MANCHESTER BY THE SEA
  3. MOONLIGHT
  4. FENCES
  5. ARRIVAL
  6. LION
  7. SILENCE
  8. HELL OR HIGH WATER
  9. HACKSAW RIDGE
  10. JACKIE

–NEXT TIER:

  • HIDDEN FIGURES
  • SULLY
  • 20TH CENTURY WOMEN
  • LOVING
  • FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS
  • THE FOUNDER

BEST DIRECTOR

  1. DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)
  2. KENNETH LONERGAN (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  3. BARRY JENKINS (MOONLIGHT)
  4. MARTIN SCORSESE (SILENCE)
  5. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)

–NEXT TIER:

  • DENIS VILLENEUVE (ARRIVAL)
  • MEL GIBSON (HACKSAW RIDGE)
  • PABLO LARRAÍN (JACKIE)
  • DAVID MACKENZIE (HELL OR HIGH WATER)
  • CLINT EASTWOOD (SULLY)
  • GARTH DAVIS (LION)

BEST ACTOR

  1. CASEY AFFLECK (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  2. DENZEL WASHINGTON (FENCES)
  3. VIGGO MORTENSEN (CAPTAIN FANTASTIC)
  4. ANDREW GARFIELD (HACKSAW RIDGE)
  5. RYAN GOSLING (LA LA LAND)

–NEXT TIER:

  • TOM HANKS (SULLY)
  • JOEL EDGERTON (LOVING)
  • ANDREW GARFIELD (SILENCE)
  • MICHAEL KEATON (THE FOUNDER)

BEST ACTRESS

  1. EMMA STONE (LA LA LAND)
  2. NATALIE PORTMAN (JACKIE)
  3. ANNETTE BENING (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)
  4. AMY ADAMS (ARRIVAL)
  5. MERYL STREEP (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)

–NEXT TIER:

  • ISABELLE HUPPERT (ELLE)
  • RUTH NEGGA (LOVING)
  • JESSICA CHASTAIN (MISS SLOANE)
  • TARAJI P. HENSON (HIDDEN FIGURES)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. MAHERSHALA ALI (MOONLIGHT)
  2. JEFF BRIDGES (HELL OR HIGH WATER)
  3. LUCAS HEDGES (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  4. DEV PATEL (LION)
  5. ISSEI OGATA (SILENCE)

–NEXT TIER:

  • HUGH GRANT (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)
  • KEVIN COSTNER (HIDDEN FIGURES)
  • MYKELTI WILLIAMSON (FENCES)
  • STEPHEN HENDERSON (FENCES)
  • LIAM NEESON (SILENCE)
  • PETER SARSGAARD (JACKIE)
  • MICHAEL SHANNON (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. VIOLA DAVIS (FENCES)
  2. NAOMIE HARRIS (MOONLIGHT)
  3. MICHELLE WILLIAMS (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  4. NICOLE KIDMAN (LION)
  5. OCTAVIA SPENCER (HIDDEN FIGURES)

–NEXT TIER:

  • JANELLE MONAE (HIDDEN FIGURES)
  • GRETA GERWIG (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)
  • HELEN MIRREN (EYE IN THE SKY)
  • MOLLY SHANNON (OTHER PEOPLE)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. BARRY JENKINS, TARELL MCRANEY (MOONLIGHT)
  2. AUGUST WILSON (FENCES)
  3. ERIC HEISSERER (ARRIVAL)
  4. LUKE DAVIES (LION)
  5. ALLISON SCHROEDER, THEODORE MELFI (HIDDEN FIGURES)

–NEXT TIER:

  • JAY COCKS & MARTIN SCORSESE (SILENCE)
  • JEFF NICHOLS (LOVING)
  • ANDREW KNIGHT & ROBERT SCHENKKAN (HACKSAW RIDGE)
  • TODD KOMARNICKI (SULLY)
  • TOM FORD (NOCTURNAL ANIMALS)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. KENNETH LONERGAN (MANCHESTER BY THE SEA)
  2. DAMIEN CHAZELLE (LA LA LAND)
  3. NOAH OPPENHEIM (JACKIE)
  4. TAYLOR SHERIDAN (HELL OR HIGH WATER)
  5. MIKE MILLS (20TH CENTURY WOMEN)

–NEXT TIER:

  • YORGOS LANTHIMOS, EFTHYMIS FILIPPOU (THE LOBSTER)
  • MATT ROSS (CAPTAIN FANTASTIC)
  • JIM JARMUSCH (PATERSON)
  • NICHOLAS MARTIN (FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS)
  • JONATHAN PERERA (MISS SLOANE)
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